The Old Navigator

Our Weatherman Was Never Right

by
Phil Rowe

"You can't predict frontal weather," our erstwhile forecaster insisted. "No, there are too many variables. Here in our temperate zone latitudes, we have to contend with cold fronts, warm fronts, occlusions and seasonal effects. Sorry, guys. I do the best I can. If only we enjoyed the stability and reliability of air mass weather, like they have in the tropics and low latitude areas."

That's the song and dance we always got from Captain Williams, the base weather officer. He was invariably wrong. It's a wonder that we even bothered to check with him before each training flight. It was only because we needed his signature on our flight planning documents. Otherwise, we'd just skip those visits to the weather section altogether.

Several years later, while serving in Viet Nam in RF-4C photo reconnaissance planes, we again needed the weatherman's sage advice before flight. To our surprise, that morning of our first combat mission, we were briefed by the very same Captain Williams we'd known back in Indiana. Small world.

"Well, Captain, you've finally gotten yourself assigned to an area where weather predicting ought to be easy," we smilingly declared, after renewing our acquaintance. "You better be right this time. This isn't just training, you know. We've got important targets to locate."

Williams assured us that the target areas would be free of clouds and getting pictures would be a snap, so to speak. But then, he qualified his promising forecast with a few words about the scarcity of reporting stations up north.

"After all, we don't get reports from North Viet Nam or up in China. We have to make do with a few limited and scattered observations from Thailand and reports from other pilots, you know."

Upon arrival in the target area, just west of Danang in the central highlands, we discovered that there was no way we could descend into the mountain valleys to get our pictures. It was completely socked-in. Our priority target would have to wait. Today we'd be lucky to see our secondary targets.

On return to our Saigon base, we headed for the weather section to report what we'd found up north. Captain Williams listened attentively and then apologized, saying "Sorry about that, guys. It's this air mass weather that's so difficult to forecast."

We just shook our heads, as we left the weather section, with Williams continuing his diatribe about the instabilities of tropical weather, it's monsoon vagaries and the dearth of regional reporting stations to aid in forecasting. We wondered just where in the world that weatherman would be happy.